Who is behind TODAY’S DEMONSTRATIONS IN JAKARTA?

The rally was initiated by the so-called National Movement to Safeguard the Indonesian Ulema Council’s Fatwa (GNPF-MUI), referring to a fatwa from the MUI stating that Ahok had indeed committed blasphemy. The leader of the hard-line Islam Defenders Front (FPI), Habieb Rizieq, is a leading organizer of the planned rally.

Ahok, a Christian and Indonesian of Chinese descent in a Muslim-majority country, has sparked uproar among Islamic groups after he made a comment about a Quranic verse during his visit to Thousand Islands regency in late September.

Indonesia’s two largest Muslim organizations have expressed their disapproval over the rally.

Muhammadiyah and Nadhlatul Ulama (NU) have called on the GNPF-MUI to refrain from holding another demonstration, saying the move would disrupt the ongoing legal process.

The Indonesia Ulema Council (MUI), meanwhile, has also called Muslims not to stage another rally, asking them to channel their aspirations through more democratic ways, namely through meetings with the government or through the media. The MUI has also distanced itself from the GNPF-MUI, saying the latter was not part of it and did not have any formal relations with the council as an Islamic organization.

What will they do?

Rizieq had initially said the protesters would carry out Friday prayers along two of the capital's main roads, Jl. MH Thamrin and Jl. Sudirman. National Police chief Gen. Tito Karnavian quickly rejected the idea, as doing so would cause massive congestion. NU leading cleric Ahmad Mustofa Bisri has also expressed concern that conducting Friday prayers on the street had no precedent in Islam.

The MUI, meanwhile, announced in a fatwa on its website that Friday prayers could be held outside a mosque as long as there was coordination with law enforcement bodies and no disturbance to public activities.

After a series of meetings between the GNPF-MUI and the National Police, it was decided that the rally’s Friday prayers would be held at the National Monument (Monas) from 8 a.m. until 1 p.m. and would consist only of dzikir (mass chants in praise of God), sermons and Friday prayers instead of street demonstration. Jl. Merdeka Selatan is also prepared to accommodate protesters.

Up to 600,000 people are predicted to join the rally according to Monas management, but police estimated the number to be closer to 150,000 to 200,000 people.

How will this rally affect business and traffic?

The National Police will reroute traffic around the Monas to prevent congestion, and Jl. Medan Merdeka Utara and Jl. Medan Merdeka Barat will be closed.

(Read also: Police to reroute traffic during anti-Ahok gathering on Friday)

Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) chairman Rosan P. Roeslani said local and global investors had expressed hope that the rally would not turn violent.

Previously, the leadership of the Confederation of Indonesian Workers Unions (KSPI) announced that its members would participate in the Dec. 2 rally. Aside from demanding Ahok’s arrest, the labor union would also voice its protest over Government Regulation No. 78 of 2015 concerning wages. The union boasted that 500,000 workers would join the rally. The National Police are calling on labor union leaders to postpone their rally.

Some schools in Central Jakarta, such as St. Theresia Catholic School, will be closed on Friday.

Will the rally turn chaotic?

Gen. Tito has called on Greater Jakarta residents to not be alarmed about the rally. Jokowi has also stated that he considered the rally a mass prayer event rather than another anti-Ahok demonstration.

The police and the military are ready to deploy 22,000 joint forces to secure the rally. The personnel will secure not only Monas, but also government offices surrounding Monas and other government offices and hotels, such as Jl. Veteran, Lapangan Banteng, the Hotel Indonesia traffic circle, Tanah Abang, Jl. Abdul Muis and Jl. K.H Hasyim Ashari.

Just like for the Nov. 4 rally, the personnel would not carry firearms and take a friendly approach toward protesters. However, not everyone is convinced the rally will run peacefully. National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) chief Comr. Gen Suhardi Alius, for example, has warned that former terrorism convicts may join the rally.

What about the legal process in the blasphemy case?

The legal process is still in progress and moving quickly as the case has been given a priority due to its sensitive nature.

• Sept. 27: Ahok visited Thousand Island regency
• Oct. 11: MUI concluded that Ahok had committed blasphemy
• Oct. 14: First rally demanding Ahok’s immediate arrest in front of City Hall
• Nov. 4: Mass rally in front of State Palace with more than 100,000 protesters. Jokowi promised that the case would be solved within two weeks.
• Nov. 7: Police summoned Ahok for closed-door questioning
• Nov. 9: A police official said that the police had questioned more than 30 witnesses in their investigation
• Nov. 10: Plan to live-broadcast the case-screening was announced, and canceled the next day
• Nov. 12: Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU Jakarta) confirmed that Ahok is still eligible to run for Governor despite suspect status. KPU Jakarta chairman Sumarno said the only thing that could invalidate Ahok’s candidacy was if a court sentenced him to five years of imprisonment or more. If a candidate is sentenced to five years, Sumarno said, political parties endorsing the candidate were required to find a substitute at the very latest 30 days before the election.
• Nov. 14: Ahok’s campaign carries on with the launch of a new post
• Nov. 15: The case screening was held, Ahok did not attend. A case screening is part of a crime investigation prior to the police deciding whether or not to name someone a suspect.
• Nov. 16: Ahok was named suspect. The governor was charged with violating Article 156 (a) of the Criminal Code on blasphemy, which carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison.
• Nov. 17: Amnesty International urged police to drop the case
• Nov. 22: Ahok appears at Bareskrim for first interrogation as suspect. He was questioned for eight hours and refused to comment further.
• Nov. 22: Human Rights Watch urges Indonesia to repeal Blasphemy Law
• Nov. 23: Police probe Buni Yani, uploader of Ahok’s allegedly blasphemous speech. Buni’s edited video contained errors in the transcript that started the issue of blasphemy. He was named a suspect. Buni was charged with violating Article 28 of the Electronic Information and Transactions (ITE) Law, which carried a maximum sentence of six years in prison.
• Nov. 25: Police handed over case dossier to Attorney General’s Office (AGO)
• Nov. 30: AGO declared the case dossier complete

Is it true that the rally can lead to the President’s impeachment?

Speculation that the demonstrations are actually targeting President Jokowi is rife since Nov. 4. At his press conference following the large-scale rally, the President vaguely accused “political actors” of being behind the rally.

During the rally, House of Representative Deputy Speaker Fahri Hamzah made a provocative speech about impeaching the President. In his speech, Fahri said there were two ways Jokowi could be impeached, through the legislature or through the ‘street legislature’.

Jokowi’s supporters grouped in the Red and White Solidarity Group (Solmet) reported Fahri to the Jakarta Police for allegedly violating Article 160 of the Criminal Code on provocation. Another group, the President’s Volunteer Forum (Bara JP), reported Fahri to the National Police’s Criminal Investigation Department (Bareskrim).

Fahri later dismissed the impeachment rumor.

The Constitution allows lawmakers to impeach a president if two thirds vote in favor. However, an impeachment seems far-fetched after Jokowi made a series of meetings with leaders of political parties to consolidate support after the Nov. 4 rally.